在Invitrogen宣布将以67亿美元收购ABI公司之后，人们的议论就一直没有停止。现在大家又开始津津乐道地讨论Invitrogen保留ABI质谱业务的理由，以及它是否会很快抛弃这部分业务。
尽管ABI是质谱业务的行业领先者，但是近年来这部分业务正急速下滑，而它的竞争者：赛默飞世尔科技和Waters在质谱技术创新上占据了主要地位，安捷伦也抢走了其部分市场份额。人们开始担心ABI是否能扭转这种局面。
在上星期的电话会议中，Invitrogen CEO Greg Lucier对于新公司质谱业务的态度也有点含糊。当被问到如果有机会，他是否会卖掉这部分业务时，他谢绝对这种可能性做出评价，并表示“会继续运营这部分业务”。
Lucier表示收购中有90％是“完美的契合”，但质谱不是。他表示，理想的状况是客户在购买了一台仪器之后，会持续购买大量的试剂。但是，“质谱仪不大符合这种理想状况，所以我只说90％是完美的契合，而另外10％也是很好的业务，我们打算继续运行。”
但是这些话并没有减轻华尔街的担心，他们担心ABI衰退的质谱业务会损害这场交易。评论家Peter McDonald认为，近年来ABI没有推出任何新的有意义的质谱平台，这很让投资者担心。“每个人都在等待一台新仪器的出现，但是却始终没有。”
ABI也意识到了这一点，它计划补充仪器产品线，在下个月推出新的质谱仪。在上周的电话会议上，ABI公司的董事长兼COO Mark Stevenson也表示这些计划将继续进行。
近年来质谱销售量的停滞不前对ABI来说也是坏消息。在过去连续6个季度中，仪器的销售增长在持续下降，在上一季度，即1～3月，质谱的销售额增长不到1％。
德意志银行分析家Ross Muken在一篇研究评论中写到，Invitrogen对ABI感兴趣的最主要原因是能够获得它的SOLiD测序平台，从而进入新一代测序市场。Invitrogen想要维持质谱业务是一个大难题。他表示：“如果你把质谱业务摆在新公司中，你就会很清楚发现它不适合。而且它与新公司的其他业务没有互补的地方。”
Muken补充说，Invitrogen在改善ABI质谱业务上也能力有限。因为ABI是与MDS合资经营的，质谱的研发主要是依靠MDS这家加拿大公司。
实际上，收购提议对于ABI与MDS的伙伴关系有什么样的影响现在还不清楚。Invitrogen及ABI的官员在电话会议上都没有对这件事做出评论。
MDS的发言人Janet Ko表示公司会照常开展业务。MDS评价这个事件是“我们合资伙伴的好消息，并相信Invitrogen有杰出的管理团队，期望与它们共同发展ABI/MDS的合资。”
同时，人们开始推测新公司将最终卖掉质谱业务，最快在1年半之内。Muken表示估价在13亿～15亿美元质检，但可能的买家非常有限。他说：“这是一个非常有吸引力的资源，但并不是很多人能够买得起，或有这个能力来处理它。”
分析家表示，普遍认为如果合并后的公司决定放弃质谱业务，MDS似乎是最有可能的投标者，尽管MDS现在还不具备这样的资源来进行这笔大买卖。其它的潜在买家可能包括安捷伦、赛默飞世尔或外国公司如日立或岛津。
参考英文原文
Invitrogen Deal to Acquire ABI Leads to Mass Speculation About Mass Spec Business
[June 20, 2008] By Tony Fong Editor, ProteoMonitor
NEW YORK (GenomeWeb News) - As the dust settles from last week’s announcement of Invitrogen’s bid to acquire Applied Biosystems for $6.7 billion, questions continue to swirl around Invitrogen’s rationale for keeping ABI’s mass spectrometry business, and whether the company has plans to quickly jettison the segment.
While ABI is the current industry leader in mass spec sales, it is in the midst of a sharp slowdown that has raised concern about ABI’s ability to turn the unit around, particularly as competitors such as Thermo Fisher Scientific and Waters move to take the lead in technological innovation and Agilent Technologies takes market share away with its continuing push into the space.
During last week’s conference call announcing the proposed deal, Invitrogen CEO Greg Lucier was opaque when discussing plans for the new company’s mass-spec business. When asked whether he was open to selling it if the opportunity was there, he declined to comment on that possibility and said, “We’re going to run that business. We’re going to run it for success with our partner, and it is business as usual.”
Lucier said that while 90 percent of the acquisition is “an absolutely perfect fit,” mass specs are not. The ideal situation, he said, would be a sales flow in which customers would need to buy large amounts of reagents for use on the newly acquired instruments. Only, “a mass spec instrument doesn’t quite fit that description,“ Lucier said. “So my comment was 90 percent of [the deal] is a perfect fit, and the 10 percent [remaining] is still a very good business, and we intend to run it,” he said.
That has done little to quell Wall Street’s worries that ABI’s flagging mass-spec business could hurt the deal. Peter McDonald, an analyst at Wall Street Access, told GenomeWeb Daily News sister publication ProteoMonitor this week that the lack of any new meaningful mass spec platform. from ABI in recent years is a particular concern for investors.
“Everyone’s been waiting for a new instrument and they haven’t had anything in the near term,” he said.
Aware of this, ABI plans to replenish its instrument portfolio and recently company officials said new mass specs will be hitting the market in coming months. During last week’s conference call, Mark Stevenson, president and COO of Applied Biosystems, said that those plans will proceed.
Plateauing mass-spec sales in recent quarters have also been bad news for ABI. For the past six consecutive quarters, sales growth for the instruments has steadily declined, and in the last completed quarter, ending March 31 – ABI’s fiscal third quarter – mass spec sales grew less than 1 percent.
Ross Muken, an analyst with Deutsche Bank, wrote in a research note that the key reason for Invitrogen’s interest in ABI is to acquire its SOLiD sequencing platform. and gain access to the next-generation sequencing market.
Invitrogen’s desire to keep the mass-spec business, however, is “a head-scratcher,” Muken wrote.
“As you look at mass spec within the new [company] it’s a clear standout that does not fit,” Muken said to ProteoMonitor. “And it really has no complementary pieces with the rest of the Invitrogen/ABI combination.”
Invitrogen is also limited in its ability to improve ABI’s mass-spec business, Muken added, because ABI has a joint-venture agreement with MDS Analytical Technologies on the instruments and depends on the Canadian firm for mass spec R&D.
Indeed, the effect of the proposed acquisition on ABI’s partnership with MDS is unclear. Neither Invitrogen nor ABI officials provided any insight into the matter during the conference call.
Janet Ko, a spokeswoman for MDS, told ProteoMonitor in an e-mail that it will continue to do business as usual. MDS views the deal “as good news for our [joint-venture] partner [and] believes Invitrogen has an excellent management team, and we look forward to working with them to grow the ABI/MDS joint venture,” she said.
Meanwhile, speculation has begun that the new company, which will adopt the Applied Biosystems name, will eventually sell the mass spec business, perhaps as quickly as within 18 months. But with an estimated price tag of between $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion, the list of potential buyers is limited, Muken said.
“It’s an attractive asset but there’s not a long list of people who can afford it or would be in a position at this point to be able to do something to transact it,” he said.
The consensus view is that MDS appears to be the most likely bidder to buy out ABI if the combined company decides to divest its mass-spec business, although MDS currently doesn’t have the resources to make such a purchase, analysts have said. Other potential buyers could include Agilent, Thermo Fisher, or foreign firms, such as Hitachi or Shimadzu.
在08年ASMS上，AB公司没有发布任何新产品。同样在08年ASMS上，Agilent高调发布6460，宣称是世界上最高灵敏度的三重四级杆质谱；Thermo发布TSQ Vantage，Waters发布Xevo，都纷纷说自己的仪器是世界上灵敏度最高的。
我都搞迷糊了，我想不到，一夜之间，三重四级杆质谱的技术进步竟如此之快。
08年8~9月份，AB公司推出新一代5500串联质谱。命名有点奇怪，按他们一贯命名方式，应该是API 6000。而这一次，居然是Triple Quad 5500 and QTRAP 5500。 难道他们仅仅比API 5000灵敏度只高一点点？那跟其他公司相比呢？
这是很感兴趣的话题，也是很有争议的话题。我在chromatography forum找到2个帖子，学到一点东西（附其中一个链接）。
如果我自己现在有什么看法的话，我觉得，宣传自己的仪器是最高灵敏度的都是商业手段；一个短时间研发的仪器是不太可能在短时间有什么稳定的突破性性能，如果有突破的性能，那也是相对他们自己的仪器而言。依靠AB公司长年的技术积累，5500恐怕在长时间内将保持较大的领先地位。
还是回到收购的话题上来。被丹纳赫收购的的AB质谱业务将走向何方？AB质谱（暂且）还能持续推出高性能的质谱吗？在当前经济不景气的情况下，质谱市场将会有怎样的变化？
安捷伦收购瓦里安花费15亿美金。当然，安捷伦连续几个季度财务亏损，但是却宣布其质谱增长迅猛。
丹纳赫收购AB的质谱部门和MDS sciex质谱工厂和研发部门花费11亿美金。
对比一下金额，质谱的市场重要性日益突出。在LC,GC甚至是GC-MS满天飞的情况下，昂贵而销售量大增长迅猛的LC-MS/MS和蛋白质谱将是仪器市场巨大的利润来源。这也是为什么各个厂家纷纷大力宣传自己的新质谱并拼命说自己才是最高灵敏的原因。
然而，为什么Life Techologies公司要放弃领先的质谱部门呢？
让我们再读一读Invitrogen CEO Greg Lucier的话，仪器和试剂都是收益来源，而质谱仅有仪器收益。在PCR和测序仪渐渐普及的今天，它们的市场运作模式跟质谱市场运作已渐渐不同。在购买量不是很大的年代，AB公司的PCR部门和质谱部门有着和谐的经营文化。在金融危机的背景下，想从质谱部门短时间获得大量的收益不太现实。因此，在生命技术公司内部有一个经营文化的差异。那么，出售质谱部门也就顺理成章了。
那么，为什么不是质谱技术尚弱的岛津公司，或者是雄心勃勃的安捷伦公司购买AB的质谱部门呢？
AB的质谱业务在市场领先，而且在技术上特别是生命科学应用方面有很大的优势。老美绝不会将先进的技术拱手让给他人。而且，在经济复苏的背景下，美国人也希望拥有先进技术有前景的公司一定要在强调技术领先的企业文化下。丹纳赫虽然涉及科学仪器甚少，但是他确是整个精密仪器界的老大。而且，这一次，丹纳赫连MDS sciex也买下来，整合成一个部门，这就意味着研发和制造实际上在美国的控制下，还保留了AB sciex品牌。美国人对科技和市场的掌控能力确实非凡。
在搜索的同时，看到另外一条新浪资讯。
分析师调升丹纳赫评级至跑赢大盘
新浪财经讯 北京时间周四晚间消息，券商FBR Capital将多元化工业公司丹纳赫(Danaher)(DHR)的股票评级从“与大盘持平”上调至“跑赢大盘”，原因是预计该公司最近达成的并购交易将为其增长提供动力。
丹纳赫周三宣布，将以11亿美元的价格收购两项业务，其一是Applied Biosystems/MDS Sciex，主要生产质谱仪；其二是MDS Inc(MDZ)旗下一家生物研究与分析仪器公司。
FBR分析师迪恩·德雷(Deane Dray)表示，此项收购所带来的盈利增长将超过丹纳赫预期的每股5-7美分。
他表示：“此项收购可称是最佳范例，我们认为能够为丹纳赫的增长提供动力。”
可惜啊，前几天我怎么没有去买丹纳赫的股票呢？不好意思，我从来没买过股票。
